by Joseph Powell

Fossil fuels are a major cause of global warming, so why not just stop using them?  As of 2024, fossil fuels continue to provide more than 80% of the world’s energy, or 82% of U.S energy, with renewable wind and solar power comprising less than 8% of global energy supply (Figure ET-1). Costs of installing instantaneous electrical power generation from wind and solar are less than natural gas or coal (Figure ET-6), even in the absence of subsidy. However, our society requires energy 24/7, and the best U.S. locations for renewable energy provide power only 30% - 50% of the time for wind, and 15 – 20% for solar, with average performance much lower. Energy storage costs including batteries are diminishing, but are expected to level following 2025 at ca. $100/MWh,  which is higher than costs of power generation from natural gas or coal (Figure ET-7). Natural gas can be readily stored a low cost in reservoirs and pipelines, while coal is stored in piles of more than 50-day supply at near-zero cost.     

While we can accommodate a small amount of variable renewable energy by adjusting demand and our behaviors, generating then storing large amounts of variable renewable energy to meet societal needs is more expensive than current generation from fossil fuels, and can require more land use and space vs. using coal, oil, or natural gas (Table ET-1). Changing infrastructure to shift away from fossil fuels or capture the carbon from their use requires massive investment—around $4 trillion per year – which is estimated as almost half of the discretionary income of the wealthiest 20% of the world. The energy transition will take time, commitment and effort, and if we are committed to achieving “Net Zero” fossil carbon emissions, a willingness to pay for more expensive 24/7 clean energy.   

I'm Joe Powell at the University of Houston Energy Transition Institute.

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References:

¹Energy Institute, Statistical Review of World Energy 2024. https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review

²(1) U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review, Energy consumption by sector, Tables 2.1.a and 2.1.b, April 2024, preliminary data., and (1) 2 U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review, Energy Overview, Table 1.2, April 2024, preliminary data. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/

 ³Lazard (2021), Levelized cost of Energy https://www.lazard.com/research-insights/levelized-cost-of-energy-levelized-cost-of-storage-and-levelized-cost-of-hydrogen-2021/